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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway - Gardner, Dan / Graham, Philip
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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway - livre d'occasion

1970, ISBN: 9780771035197

For fans of Blink, Tipping Point, Freakonomics and Gardner's own bestselling Risk. After World War I, experts pronounced that another war of that scale was impossible. In the 1970s, th… Plus…

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Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway by Dan Gardner - Dan Gardner
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Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway by Dan Gardner - livre d'occasion

1970, ISBN: 9780771035197

For fans of Blink, Tipping Point, Freakonomics and Gardner's own bestselling Risk. After World War I, experts pronounced that another war of that scale was impossible. In the 1970s, the b… Plus…

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Dan Gardner:
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway - edition reliée, livre de poche

ISBN: 9780771035197

McClelland & Stewart. Hardcover. GOOD. Spine creases, wear to binding and pages from reading. May contain limited notes, underlining or highlighting that does affect the text. Possi… Plus…

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Dan Gardner:
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway - edition reliée, livre de poche

ISBN: 9780771035197

McClelland & Stewart. Hardcover. GOOD. Spine creases, wear to binding and pages from reading. May contain limited notes, underlining or highlighting that does affect the text. Possible … Plus…

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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway - livre d'occasion

ISBN: 0771035195

Fnac.com : Livraison gratuite et - 5% sur tous les livres. Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway - Livre. Découvrez des nouveautés, des coups de cœur… Plus…

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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not alwa

Informations détaillées sur le livre - Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway


EAN (ISBN-13): 9780771035197
ISBN (ISBN-10): 0771035195
Version reliée
Date de parution: 2010
Editeur: MCCLELLAND & STEWART
320 Pages
Langue: eng/Englisch

Livre dans la base de données depuis 2010-03-15T17:14:20+01:00 (Paris)
Page de détail modifiée en dernier sur 2023-11-26T15:44:14+01:00 (Paris)
ISBN/EAN: 9780771035197

ISBN - Autres types d'écriture:
0-7710-3519-5, 978-0-7710-3519-7
Autres types d'écriture et termes associés:
Auteur du livre: dan graham, gardner
Titre du livre: babble, expert, predictions


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