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EAN (ISBN-13): 9780470033302
ISBN (ISBN-10): 0470033304
Date de parution: 2006
Editeur: Wiley
338 Pages
Langue: eng/Englisch

Livre dans la base de données depuis 2009-03-27T02:27:40+01:00 (Paris)
Page de détail modifiée en dernier sur 2023-06-22T09:04:20+02:00 (Paris)
ISBN/EAN: 9780470033302

ISBN - Autres types d'écriture:
0-470-03330-4, 978-0-470-03330-2
Autres types d'écriture et termes associés:
Auteur du livre: jenkins david, paul buck, danesh, david garth, rakow, tim jenkins, richard anthony, caitlin buck


Données de l'éditeur

Auteur: Anthony O'Hagan; Caitlin E. Buck; Alireza Daneshkhah; Richard Eiser; Paul Garthwaite; David Jenkinson; Jeremy Oakley; Tim Rakow
Titre: Statistics in Practice; Uncertain Judgements - Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
Editeur: Wiley; John Wiley & Sons
338 Pages
Date de parution: 2006-08-30
Langue: Anglais
59,99 € (DE)
Not available (reason unspecified)

EA; E107; E-Book; Nonbooks, PBS / Mathematik/Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie, Stochastik, Mathematische Statistik; Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und Statistik; Bayesian Analysis; Bayessches Verfahren; Bayes-Verfahren; Medical Science; Medical Sciences Special Topics; Medizin; Methoden der Daten- u. Stichprobenerhebung; Psychological Methods, Research & Statistics; Psychologie; Psychologische Methoden, Forschung u. Statistik; Psychology; Spezialthemen Medizin; Statistics; Statistik; Survey Research Methods & Sampling; Spezialthemen Medizin; Psychologische Methoden, Forschung u. Statistik; Methoden der Daten- u. Stichprobenerhebung; Bayes-Verfahren; BB

Preface. 1. Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement. 1.1 Introduction. 1.2 Probability and elicitation. 1.3 Uncertainty and the interpretation of probability. 1.4 Elicitation and the psychology of judgement. 1.5 What use are such judgements? 1.6 Conclusions. 2. The Elicitation Context. 2.1 How and who? 2.2 What is an expert? 2.3 The elicitation process. 2.4 Conventions in Chapters 3 to 9. 2.5 Conclusions. 3. The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty. 3.1 Introduction. 3.2 Understanding the task and the expert. 3.3 Understanding research on human judgement. 3.4 The heuristic and biases research programme. 3.4.6 Theaffect heuristic. 3.5 Experts and expertise. 3.6 Three meta theories of judgement. 3.7 Conclusions. 4. The Elicitation of Probabilities. 4.1 Introduction. 4.2 The Calibration of Subjective Probabilities. 4.3 The calibration in subjective probabilities: theories andexplanations. 4.4 Representations and methods. 4.5 Debiasing. 4.6 Conclusions. 5. Eliciting Distributions - General. 5.1 From probabilities to distributions. 5.2 Eliciting univariate distributions. 5.3 Eliciting multivariate distributions. 5.4 Uncertainty and imprecision. 5.5 Conclusions. 6. Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution. 6.1 Introduction. 6.2 Outline of this chapter. 6.3 Eliciting opinion about a proportion. 6.4 Eliciting opinion about a general scalar quantity. 6.5 Eliciting opinion about a set of proportions. 6.6 Eliciting opinion about the parameters of amultivariate normal distribution. 6.7 Eliciting opinion about the parameters of a linearregression model. 6.8 Eliciting opinion about the parameters of a generalizedlinear model. 6.9 Elicitation methods for other problems. 6.10 Deficiencies in existing research. 6.11 Conclusions. 7. Eliciting Distributions - Uncertainty andImprecision. 7.1 Introduction. 7.2 Imprecise probabilities. 7.3 Incomplete information. 7.4 Summary. 7.5 Conclusions. 8. Evaluating Elicitation. 8.1 Introduction. 8.2 Scoring rules. 8.3 Coherence, feedback and overfitting. 8.4 Conclusions. 9. Multiple Experts. 9.1 Introduction. 9.2 Mathematical aggregation. 9.3 Behavioural aggregation. 9.4 Discussion. 9.5 Elicitation practice. 9.6 Research questions. 10. Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of ExpertOpinion. 10.1 Some applications. 10.2 An example of an elicitation interview - eliciting enginesales. 10.3 Medicine. 10.4 The nuclear industry. 10.5 Veterinary science. 10.6 Agriculture. 10.7 Meteorology. 10.8 Business studies, economics and finance. 10.9 Other professions. 10.10 Other examples of the elicitation of subjectiveprobabilities. 11. Guidance on Best Practice. 12. Areas for Research. Glossary. Bibliography. Author Index. Index.

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