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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb:

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - nouveau livre

ISBN: 9781400063512

ID: a058441415e03a83f6e633390651254f

Examines the role of the unexpected - the Black Swan - in both life and human history, explaining how the phenomenon and its applications affect every aspect of the world in which we live, why humans are unable to anticipate a Black Swan, and how we rationalize the phenomenon to make it appear less random. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes . A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." -GQ Praise for The Black Swan "[A book] that altered modern thinking." - The Times (London) "A masterpiece." -Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." -Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." -Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy." -The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into." - Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." -The New York Times Book Review Bücher / Fremdsprachige Bücher / Englische Bücher / Preisgekrönte Bücher 978-1-4000-6351-2, Random House Inc

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
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Taleb, Nassim Nicholas:

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - livre d'occasion

ISBN: 9781400063512

ID: 6023775

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications "The Black Swan" will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book-itself a black swan. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, Random House (NY)

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb:
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) - livre d'occasion

ISBN: 1400063515

ID: 4181224

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below. Guest Reviewer: Chris AndersonChris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most import applied,business and investing,decision-making and problem solving,education and reference,epistemology,finance,management,management and leadership,mathematics,personal transformation Philosophy, Random House

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The Black Swan  The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
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Taleb, Nassim Nicholas:
The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable - edition reliée, livre de poche

2007, ISBN: 9781400063512

ID: 878487472

Random House. Near Fine in Near Fine dust jacket. 2007. Twenty-Ninth Printing. Hardcover. 9781400063512 . A Good Read ships from Toronto and Niagara Falls, NY - customers outside of North America please allow two to three weeks for delivery. Some wrinkles on edges of d/j. ; Incerto; 9.50 X 6.70 X 1.30 inches; 366 pages ., Random House, 2007

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Livre non disponible
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb:
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - edition reliée, livre de poche

2007, ISBN: 1400063515

ID: 9027705213

[EAN: 9781400063512], [PU: Random House], Philosophy|Epistemology, Social Science|Future Studies, Computers & the Internet|Information Theory

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Détails sur le livre
The Black Swan
Auteur:

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas

Titre:

The Black Swan

ISBN:

9781400063512

Taleb delivers a groundbreaking look at the role played by the unexpected in life and history, and a fascinating examination of why we know less than we think we do--and what to do about it.

Informations détaillées sur le livre - The Black Swan


EAN (ISBN-13): 9781400063512
ISBN (ISBN-10): 1400063515
Version reliée
Livre de poche
Date de parution: 2007
Editeur: Random House Inc.
366 Pages
Poids: 0,663 kg
Langue: eng/Englisch

Livre dans la base de données depuis 04.06.2007 16:32:51
Livre trouvé récemment le 18.11.2016 12:51:33
ISBN/EAN: 9781400063512

ISBN - Autres types d'écriture:
1-4000-6351-5, 978-1-4000-6351-2

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